Trump: Considering Occupying Kharg Island.

When Israel and the US decided on 28 February to take military action against Iran, they were in for a shock, or so it seems. The policy of decapitation of enemy leadership has always been Israel's policy. Countless leaders that Israel regards as enemies have been assassinated in this way. Whether from Mossad, the IDF, the Israeli Air Force, whatever. The US, of late, has also adopted this policy. The reasoning being that killing the leaders of an enemy organisation or country will cut off the head of the snake. The problem with that is the snake grows another head. When Israel killed Hezbollah Chief Hasan Nasrallah, yes, it shook the group to its very foundations. But the group under a new leadership is battling Israel in Lebanon now as we speak.

When Israel and the US took out Ayatollah Khamenei and senior Iranian political, religious, and military leaders, they thought the regime would- fold. That the common Iranian man and woman would take to the streets and boom - game over for the ayatollahs. However, while losing such a powerful figure as the Ayatollah would have come as a tremendous shock, the regime didn't fold. Instead, they hit back with missiles and drones at Israel, US military bases, and the infrastructure of Arab countries in the Gulf. Iran promised that if the US and Israel struck them, it would become a full-scale war.

There have been tremendous attacks from both sides, resulting in death and destruction. While the regime of the ayatollahs is a horrible one, this war was not necessary. Trump, probably being led by the nose by Netanyahu, started a war with Iran that they thought might have wrapped up quickly. Instead, Iran has proved to be a resilient and dangerous opponent. Despite massive bombings of infrastructure, displacement of civilian populations, the death of the Ayatollah (now succeeded by his son), and the death of senior Iranian leadership, the destruction of Iran's surface fleet, and an old-fashioned air force, Iran remains in the fight. Able to respond to enemy attacks with its arsenal of drones and missiles.

The death toll has been heavy on the Iranian side, with leaders being taken out, religious, political, and military, as well as civilian, and it is huge. While Iran is facing massively better-armed opponents in the US and Israel, the munition traffic has not just been heading to Iran. Iran has hit back and brought death and destruction on the heads of the Americans and Israelis, too.

Iran has been accused of stifling traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Oil tankers sail through that gap in the Gulf, taking this much-needed fuel to international destinations. Iran says it is only stopping ships carrying goods to and from what it considers enemy nations. Some tankers have been hit by Iranian drones and missiles. Meanwhile, Chinese tankers are still sailing through the Strait carrying precious Iranian oil to China. Chinese payment for Iranian oil is important to the Iranian economy, which, before this war, was already on life support. The plan by Iran to only allow ships which benefit it through the Strait is deliberate. To cause maximum pain to the West, as tankers not aligned with Iran refuse to sail for fear of interception or attack. Iran, while fighting a military campaign, is also undertaking an economic campaign. For example, just as energy prices were coming down in the UK, this war will bump up prices. Terrible news for consumers struggling to pay their bills. By inflicting this kind of hurt on the West, Iran hopes to stop the war or at least make its enemies consider the economic cost to its populations.

Gaps appear to be opening up, though, between Netanyahu and Trump. Trump seems to have given his first mantra of regime change the shove. Security is tight on the streets of Iran, and the population will not want to venture onto the streets. Back in January/February, protestors paid a heavy price for their defiance of the regime as they were gunned down en masse. Could it be that Trump is thinking of wrapping up this war? When you listen to Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth or even Trump himself, you wouldn't think so. However, behind closed doors, the conduct and resilience of the Iranians and the cost (financial, deaths, injuries, etc) of this war may be worrying the Trump administration. Trump wants to emerge from this war with his head held high. Short of regime change, Trump might say, "We have weakened Iran politically, militarily, and infrastructure-wise, so I have decided to wrap this up". That would be a get-out-of-jail clause for Trump. Trump will be facing the midterm elections, and he will be wary of losing both houses to the Democrats. This would leave Trump in power, but he would have trouble getting anything passed with the Democrats presumably dominating both houses. Trump would then be called a "Lame duck President", possibly facing impeachment.

Israel would want to finish the war as long as it takes if that is a realistic goal. If the Iranian regime collapsed or was replaced by Shah Palavi living in exile, that would suit Israel. Israel wants to be the only power in the region and to have Iran in chaos, or a more compliant government would be a peace dividend for Israel. However, one must not forget that Netanyahu is wanted on corruption charges in Israel and is wanted as a war criminal abroad. So, as long as he can keep the war going, he is immune, in theory, from prosecution. So Trump and Netanyahu's war aims could be diverging.

The US has already bombed Kharg Island, taking out 90 military targets, apparently. But Trump, according to his own rhetoric, was gracious enough not to bomb oil storage facilities. It seems Trump is mulling over occupying Kharg Island or blockading it, so Iran will allow all tankers to sail through the Straits of Hormuz. To bring relief to a worried world. Any such blockade or occupation would really hurt Iran, as there would be no oil income coming in. Any attack on Kharg Island would be bloody and nasty for both sides. Of course, China depends on Iranian oil, so how would it react?

As this war progresses, if that is the correct word, it could wrap up tomorrow. Given how Trump wrapped up the 12-day war last year and forced Israel to stop fighting, that could be possible. However, the US and Israel may have created a quagmire that may have no easy answers.